June 15: WNBA Power Rankings
Bet Thrive WNBA Power Ratings are not standings. They are not a reactionary ranking based on last night’s box score, public opinion, or whatever team is getting the most attention on social media. These ratings are forward-looking betting numbers designed to measure team strength from this point forward.
That distinction matters. A team can be higher in our ratings than its current record or market perception. A team can also be lower than its current standing if we believe the results are running ahead of the true team quality. These numbers are built for betting purposes, which means we care less about what has already happened and more about what is likely to happen next.
At the top, the Las Vegas Aces remain No. 1 at 108.8, with the New York Liberty close behind at 107.3. Minnesota continues to sit in elite territory at 106.9, just ahead of Dallas at 106.4 and Atlanta at 105.3. That top five still looks like the strongest tier in the league, and there is meaningful separation between that group and the middle.
Golden State remains steady at 102.9, while Indiana has slipped to 101.7. The Fever are still playoff-caliber in our numbers, but they are not being rated like a top-tier contender right now. Los Angeles comes in at 100.4, which keeps the Sparks in the lower-middle of the league, but still in range if things break right.
The most interesting team in this update is Phoenix. The Mercury continue to slide down our rankings, now sitting at 99.4, but context matters. We still have Phoenix rated considerably higher than its current standing and higher than what the market appears to be starting to price in. That creates opportunity. The Mercury are not a team we are giving up on. In fact, Phoenix is a team we will be looking to play over the next month if the market keeps overcorrecting.
Portland is the exact opposite case. The Fire are up at 95.1, but we believe the market and standings are getting a little too friendly with them. Portland has been a better story than expected, but that does not mean it is a good bet going forward. This is a team we will be looking to fade if prices continue moving in the wrong direction.
Seattle and Connecticut remain buried at the bottom. The Storm are down at 90.5, while the Sun sit last at 88.8. There is a clear gap between those two and the rest of the league, and until something changes, they remain difficult teams to support from a betting perspective.
These ratings have historically been excellent and have already been profitable this season. You will not find many WNBA power ratings built this way because these are not content rankings. They are betting numbers. The goal is not to describe the standings. The goal is to beat the market.
Updated Bet Thrive WNBA Power Ratings
Las Vegas Aces: 108.8
New York Liberty: 107.3
Minnesota Lynx: 106.9
Dallas Wings: 106.4
Atlanta Dream: 105.3
Golden State Valkyries: 102.9
Indiana Fever: 101.7
Los Angeles Sparks: 100.4
Phoenix Mercury: 99.4
Toronto Tempo: 97.0
Washington Mystics: 96.6
Chicago Sky: 95.8
Portland Fire: 95.1
Seattle Storm: 90.5
Connecticut Sun: 88.8
